Forcasting (MAD, naive, exponential smoothing, weighted

Forcasting (MAD, naive, exponential smoothing, weighted

Farmersdelle sells organic, hormone free, locally sourced dairy products at their store in Santa Monica. They have been tracking the monthly sales for their bottled milk for the past year and a half, as they would like to better predict demand. Use Excel to do the following:
Month and Year
Sales (in thousands of gallons)
Oct-12
55
Nov-12
54
Dec-12
55
Jan-13
50
Feb-13
53
Mar-13
49
Apr-13
52
May-13
54
Jun-13
53
Jul-13
48
Aug-13
50
Sep-13
54
1 pt Calculate the forecast for October 2013 (and all earlier months as appropriate) using a 4-period moving average.
1 pt Calculate the forecast for October 2013 (and all earlier months as appropriate) using a 3-period weighted moving average where the most recent weight is 0.5 and 2nd most recent is 0.4.
2 pts Calculate the forecast for October 2013 (and all earlier months as appropriate) using exponential smoothing. Pick the alpha that gives the BEST forecast (with respect to MAD), out to 1 decimal place only. Initialize the forecast by having November 2012’s forecast = October 2012’s sales.
1 pt Calculate the forecast for October 2013 (and all earlier months as appropriate) using the simple naAf?ve method.
2 pts Calculate MAD for each of these 4 forecasts.
2 pts On a separate page, create one Excel chart that shows: Revenues from October 2012 onward AND all 4 forecasts for October 2013 and earlier months as appropriate.

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